The EIA announced a draw of 3.7M/bbls for the week ending January 17, 2025. National inventories now stand at 74.1M/bbls compared to 67.9/bbls one year ago this week, and are still within 3M/bbls of being at the second-highest level for this week on the calendar. In other words, inventories are not a concern right now and are unlikely to be a concern after this winter.
Domestic demand was listed at 1.577M/bpd, slightly lower than last week’s 1.597M/bpd. Exports were at 1.76M/bpd (down from 1.861M/bpd) and production was 2.605M/bpd, which is the lowest level seen since March of 2024. There is something in those demand numbers that does not add up for me, considering how cold the week of Jan 10 to Jan 17 was.
•A milder stretch for the CONUS (Continential United States) likely the last few days of January and the first few days of February (some colder air lingers to start in the NE US).
•To close the first week of February, colder air starts to seep into the Northern and Western US with milder air for the Southern US/East Coast.
•Into the second week of February, colder air seeps further south leading to more widespread colder risks especially for the Central and Western US, with some milder air lingering on the East Coast. Overall, the pattern should mimic closely MJO phases 4-5-6 highlighted by the images in the top line.
