Here are some market thoughts from Flashpoint’s Darius Lechtenberger
“WTI crude and refined product prices are slightly stronger despite no immediate response from OPEC+ to President Trump’s call for lower oil prices. OPEC+ delegates pointed to a plan to increase output starting in April. On Thursday, Trump urged Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower prices, a stance he often took during his first term. However, Saudi Aramco’s CEO appeared in no rush to boost production. A critical factor in the Trump administration’s strategy against Iran and Russia is OPEC+’s ability to offset lost supply by increasing production. Trump’s strong relationship with Saudi Arabia gives him political leverage to apply pressure if necessary. Early indications suggest the market must adjust to reduced oil supply from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, with the U.S. unable to fill the gap immediately. Meanwhile, propane prices weakened yesterday despite a 3.7 million barrel draw, as strong production and high inventories continue to cap prices.”
Moving on to weather, here is a look at January GWHDD data going back a quarter century or so. January 2025 is on pace to be the third-coldest January in this time span (likely second), not far off from being the coldest. Along the lower horizontal axis, I highlight the last seven winters. On the right, you see that four of the last seven winters have been among the warmest in this stretch of years, with 2019 being just above the 30-year normal and 2022 being a colder than normal Jan. This January may close with moderating temperatures for much of the country before colder than normal anomalies return for the Upper Midwest and the Northwest.