Jon Miller and Chris Cox produce one more Propane Buzzcast in 2024, taking a look back at some key factors from 2024 and pondering how those might come into play moving forward, plus a look at the impressive cold weather forecast bearing down on the Lower 48 states in this installment of The Propane Buzzcast.
Here are some early market thoughts from Flashpoint’s Darius Lechtenberger:
“WTI crude and refined product prices are unchanged this morning after a strong day yesterday spurred on by news of China’s manufacturing activity expanding for the third consecutive month in December, albeit at a slower pace, signaling that recent government stimulus is boosting the economy. Weather forecasters predict January could be the coldest in 30 years and is expected to impact the Lower 48 and Europe. European natural gas storage is already 15% below last year’s levels, a deficit likely to deepen over the next two weeks as colder-than-normal temperatures spread across Europe. This is quite bullish for U.S. NGLs. Despite strong inventories, robust production, and export constraints driven by cold weather forecasts, propane prices surged yesterday. If prices spike, expect propane price differentials to soar rather than hub prices (i.e – Conway & Belvieu).”
LET’S TALK ABOUT THE WEATHER
Ladies and Gentlemen, behold! The best-looking winter weather outlook for the country’s eastern half in perhaps a decade or longer is on our collective doorsteps.
The first row shows week one temperature departures from normal, with week two on the right. These negative numbers you see are how much below normal the air will be, NOT a reading of air temps.
Here are weeks three and four:
Here is BAM’s final call for January:
As we get into the final week of January, the core of the colder anomalies begins to retrograde back to the west, with a Southeastern ridge showing up. If this is verified, it would be a pretty memorable winter, with retailers from coast to coast getting in on some colder-than-normal anomalies.
