There is more going on in the world than just the weather, but in the propane world, the weather is THE thing right now. However, we have seen some hub price spikes this morning over where they finished last week, with TET being up close to a nickel and Conway higher than that for prompt barrels. This would be a price spike on top of your local differential increases some of you have been seeing due to the extended cold…and that cold is staying around…perhaps several more weeks.
The first two images are of the next eight days as it relates to temp anomalies from normal. There will be a period of moderation this week, with the cold reloading.
Then, as we shared last week, we see a period of below normal to very below normal for much of the United States setting in around a week from today, and then the core of that cold slowly retrograde to the west towards the end of the month.
In the weeks one and two images (first image below), you see wall-to-wall and coast-to-coast below-normal temperature anomalies. The second image below shows BAM’s latest thoughts on February, March and April.
If these forecasts materialize as shown, or even remotely close to materializing as shown, this winter will be remembered in propane retail circles for a long, long time.
