It’s been a bit since we have taken a look at propane flat price relative to recent years, so let’s start off with that today. Here is a look at year-on-year propane daily closing averages over the past nine years, with 2025 in bright red.
The nine-year average of the daily average for yesterday is .8053, and yesterday’s Conway average was around $.8750. The TET nine-year average of the daily average is roughly $.8435, and yesterday’s average close was just north of $.8850. So flat-price values at both Conway and TET are higher than the nine-year averages, but not exponentially higher. Yesterday’s massive inventory drawdown has national inventory averages within shouting distance of the 11-year average at both Conway and TET.
What we will now watch closely is how exports continue to perform in the coming eight to twelve weeks, along with the forecast for February, to see if inventories get to a level that becomes interesting from a trading perspective, and if sentiment begins to flip from bearish to neutral.
Here are a couple of propane to crude charts, the first, propane’s value to crude since the start of 2024:
As you can see, we are in the area code of the highest this metric has been over the past 13 months. Now, let’s zoom out and see what this looks like since the start of 2019:
The Conway average for this entire period of time is 46.06%and 47.83% at TET. Yesterday’s Conway number was 50.48%, while TET was 51.17%. This has been buoyed somewhat by stronger propane prices due to the cold January. The forecast below shows a moderating period across much of the country, with cold returning in the Northwest and Upper Midwest after February gets underway. While Western retailers will enjoy the colder-than-normal anomalies, those in the East could be baking beneath warmer-than-normal anomalies for much of the month, which could put some downward pressure on propane spot values as we wind down this heating season.
