The EIA announced a build of 200,000/bbls for the week ending April 26th, 2024. National inventories now stand at 56.9M/bbls compared to 58.3M/bbls one year ago this week, or 1.4M/bbls less (2.4%) inventory on hand than one year ago. Current inventory levels are roughly 3M/bbls higher than their ten-year averages for this time of year. Another month has closed, which saw Conway’s April average at $.75830, compared to its March average of $.75250. TET had an April average of .80665 compared to a March average of .81831.
You can see the trajectory of propane’s monthly averages for the past 12 months in the chart above. April of 2023, not shown in the graph, saw Conway have an average of $.7923 and TET with an average of $.8092. So we are entering May of 2024 with a similar national inventory outlook but a more volatile geopolitical backdrop. WTI closed at $76.78 on the last trading day of April 2023, where it closed yesterday at $81.93, however the current economic backdrop has some market participants a bit skittish.
John Kemp of Reuters wrote this week in this linked item, that hedge funds were ‘retreating from oil as war risk fades’. The following italicized text is from the linked item: ‘Investors sold oil at the fastest rate for more than six months amid signs that Israel and Iran have chosen not to escalate their conflict, ensuring the rally in crude prices stalled well before reaching $100 per barrel…The ratio of bullish long positions to bearish short ones was cut even more aggressively to 3.51:1 (33rd percentile), down from a recent high of 4.97:1 (61st percentile) in late March.‘
Both the Midwest and Gulf PADD’s are slightly above their 11-year averages for this time of year.