Jon Miller returns with a solo installment of The Propane Buzzcast, where he discusses the recently released EIA data, as well as a deeper dive into the latest weather modeling and forecasts which are hinting at some devastating cold for parts of the United States in the back half of January and beyond. Click on the image below to watch the video, or click on this link.
The takeaways:
- In the last two weeks of 2023, portfolio investors increased their petroleum holdings, particularly in crude oil, reversing some earlier bearish bets.
- Despite this short-covering, crude oil positions remained bearish, ending the year well below mid-September levels.
- In contrast, fund managers expressed optimism about refined fuels, with bullish positions in U.S. gasoline and diesel due to lower-than-average inventories.
- However, European gasoil had a bearish position, reflecting the ongoing industrial recession in the region.
The article also highlighted adjustments in bearish positions related to U.S. gas prices, with fund managers covering previous shorts but maintaining an overall net short position. Unusually warm December weather delayed the rebalancing of gas markets, keeping most fund managers bearish in the short term. Overall, the energy market exhibited mixed sentiments across different sectors, influenced by factors such as geopolitical events and weather patterns.
The Pacific Northwest, West Coast and Southwest are about ready to head to the deep freeze for a few weeks. This could be one of the more prodigious cold weather events for the western half of the country in many, many years. |
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Take note in the image below, BAM has revised their January and February GWHDDs higher to where they are now projecting both months to exceed the 10 and 30-year averages. |
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