April is in the books and the calendar now turns to May. Let’s take a look at some final April numbers.
Conway’s average price for April 2022 was $1.2612, which was the third-highest April average for Conway since 1988, with April 2008 at $1.5659 and April 2011 at $1.3463 being higher. In both 2008 and 2011, we saw elevated WTI pricing both of those years, with 2008 being North of $140 to $150 at times and 2011 getting as high as $113. April 2022 is the 34th highest monthly Conway price since 1988, out of 412 total months. For what its worth, five of the six highest Conway monthly averages took place between April 2008 and August 2008, with the highest ever being January of 2014, which was $2.1342.
As for TET, April 2022 was $1.3079, which was the second highest April average since 1988 and the 31st highest month since 1988. April of 2011 was $1.4456.
We also saw elevated diesel prices in the spring of 2008, with the April of 2008 monthly average being around $4.17/gal. In today’s dollars, that would be the equivalent of roughly $5.60/cpg diesel. Diesel averaged roughly $5.16/cpg for April of 2022.
A quick market snapshot from Flashpoint’s Darius Lechtenberger:
“WTI crude oil and refined product prices are weaker in early trade. Unfavorable Chinese economic data has been reported (2nd month in a row of declines for critical factory production) and appears to be the main bearish catalyst driving prices down this morning. Don’t be fooled by today’s bearish price action and think that the worst is in the rear view mirror. Gas and diesel supplies are still below average for this time of year and it is being reporting that tankers with Russian oil are being turned back and Russian oil production is falling. Last week’s announcement by Germany to drop its ban against a Russian oil embargo rallied energy markets and will prove to be even more bullish for energy prices if an EU embargo on Russian fuel is ever fully implemented. Unfortunately, India continues to buy the deeply discounted Russian crude…I wonder how long this will continue until India gets some subtle persuasion from the West to stop? Propane prices continue to follow the lead of crude oil price movements…it appears that a majority of propane retailers are still trying to cover positions for this coming winter and each time a sizable price dip occurs, retail demand gobbles up supply pushing prices back up.”
In Russia, there have been several reports over the weekend that Russian President Vladimir Putin has cancer and is soon to go into surgery…this is amidst other reports or speculation that he is dealing with Parkinson’s disease. There is also some unease over the coming May 9th date, which is the anniversary of Red Victory Day, which commemorates Russian’s defeat of Hitler in WWII. Some are wondering if Putin will use this date to declare that Russia is at war with the world, and attempt to mobilize the Russian people into greater military numbers. Or rather, it would allow him to draft conscripts into his twisted war effort. Who knows what will come to pass as Putin has been wholly unpredictable and maniacal in recent months. However, all of this just feeds into more uncertainty for the markets and we should expect ongoing pricing volatility.
Many areas in the central plains and ag belt will see significant rains over the next week to two weeks. Planting delays may persist, and you can see that Nebraska, Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin should remain below normal on the temperature front this coming week.
Below these first two images, I share BAM’s updated May temperature outlook, and you can see that the northern third of the country could continue to see below normal temperatures…a good amount of corn acreage is within those areas…in other words, corn that does get planted could get off to a slow start relative to the maturation process. Today’s video, also linked below, talks about this.
he area’s with a number of 125 or higher saw one of the five-coldest April’s since 1893. 120 or higher was a top-ten coldest since 1893. A few areas in the Pacific Northwest saw their coldest April on record.